Not every FTSE 100 stock pick can be a winner. I hold around 20 blue-chips and two have suffered: mining giant Glencore (LSE: GLEN) and pharmaceuticals titan GSK (LSE: GSK).
Their shares are down 8% and 12%, respectively, over 12 months. Personally, I’m sitting on paper losses of 16% and 19%, despite picking up a few dividends and yes, it hurts.
While the declines are disappointing, I’m hanging on in the hope of a turnaround. So what are the chances?
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Can the Glencore share price rebound?
As one of the world’s largest miners and traders, Glencore’s heavily exposed to the volatile prices of key resources like coal, copper, and zinc.
That was fine when China was posting double-digit GDP growth year after year, while gobbling up 60% of the global supply of metals and minerals. Those days are over and as one Beijing stimulus package after another underwhelms, we can’t assume they’ll come back.
Glencore also has to navigate the pivot towards renewable energy and a low-carbon future. Its substantial coal business remains highly profitable but is at odds with global decarbonisation goals.
President Donald Trump’s mooted tariffs are another concern. The Glencore share price jumped on Friday, along with the commodity sector generally, as Trump (for now at least) adopted a less strident stance. There will no doubt be further twists to come.
The shares look good value trading at 10.5 times earnings while its 2.6% yield may be topped up by one-off dividends in the spring.
The 15 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts have produced a median target of 493p. If correct, that’s a bumper increase of almost 30% from today. I’d hate to miss out if that happens. In a famously cyclical sector, I’d be daft to sell when the shares are down.
Long-term GSK investors can be forgiven for feeling grumpy. The stock’s down 18% on a decade ago. And although investors have received plenty of dividends in that time, they’d have hoped for more. Today’s 4.25% trailing yield’s solid but still below the 6% or so that investors used to expect.
GSK shares are down, but not out
Pouring money into R&D instead was supposed to boost the pipeline and share price. It’s not really happened yet. Spinning off consumer healthcare business Haleon didn’t add much shine to the mothership either.
I thought the GSK share price would rebound last year as it settled a US class action case over heartburn medication Zantac. The relief was short-lived. And with Trump targeting big pharma, investors have another worry.
GSK shares are cheap, trading at 8.8 times earnings, but there’s a lingering suspicion of a value trap here.
The 17 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts have produced a median target of 1,618p. If correct, that’s an increase of almost 19% from today. Combined with that yield, this would give me a total return of 23%. I can’t see it happening, but I’ll hang on just in case.
I could definitely see Glencore rallying hard from here. I think GSK will be a long, slow haul. I continue to hold both but I really should have bought Nvidia.
